---> Barcelona got a super simple draw; their B team should be able to win this group.
---> AC Milan drew 2 seed that is really a 1 seed Real Madrid, as well as Ajax, and just like that group G is your OMG Group Of Death. Tough luck for AC Milan, tougher luck for Ajax, and toughest luck for Auxerre, the 4th team in the group.
---> Spurs got a tough draw on paper, but Inter without Mourinho and Twente without McLaren will both surely be down compared to last year, so it's not as bad as it looks. As an Arsenal fan who also digs Ajax, I'd be much happier if these two got each others draw.
Well, Spurs did it. After going down on Young Boys last week then coming back up a bit, today they slammed those very same Young Boys, hard. Their 3-nil down turned 6-3 aggregate win means that they have qualified for the Champions League proper for the first time ever.
Congratulations to them on this achievement. The downside, of course, is that in just a few weeks when the Group Stage gets underway, this great joke that made the rounds back in 2006 will be well & truly dead:
Q. What's the difference between the squirrel and Spurs? A. The squirrel has Champions League experience.
Goodbye forever, clever instance of mocking your enemy
The group stage draw is tomorrow at 9.00am PST and can be seen live here. Here is a list of the 32 teams that are qualified for the group stage, as well as the breakdown by pots (seeds). Note that Jose Mourhino's Real Madrid are in Pot 2 (it looks like Lyon knocked them out of Pot 1), which means that all of the non-Spainish Pot 1 teams will be rubbing their lucky rabbit's feet and hoping to avoid them in the draw. Here's hoping Arsenal dodge that bullet. Although the last time they had to play Real Madrid in the 2006 knockout stage they became the 1st ever English team to win in the Bernebeau thanks to this nifty little goal which was "no more, no less than they merit."
Was this the most anticipated game in MLS history? Not sure if that is the right way to phrase it, but between LA being in 1st place in the West, NY in 2nd place in the East, Thierry Henry, Juan Pablo Angel, the NY debut of Rafa Marquez, Landon Donovan, MLS leading scorer Edson Buddle, Beckham looking on, Kobe Bryant in attendance, and being played at a great new soccer only stadium with a big crowd, this is the 1st MLS game that I have ever actually wanted to watch. No offense to prior MLS Cups or All-Star games, but this may have been the first 'event' or 'spectacle' in MLS history. Of course 3 years ago 66,000 people watched the epic Red Bulls 5-4 win over LA in Giants Stadium, and 47,000 people watched the 2008 2-2 draw, so this didn't grow out of nothing, but those matches had none of the above except Beckham & Donovan; the additional big names gave this game a greater sense of anticipated spectacle than any MLS game that I can remember.
The irony is that although the game wasn't poor, it did not live up to the 2 aforementioned prior incarnations of this bi-coastal rivalry. Both teams hit the crossbar, and each team carved out a few good scoring chances, but at the end of the day, from a technical perspective, this was a run of the mill MLS game. Still, the names and the spectacle of it are very good for the short & long term growth of soccer in the US.
A few other random observations:
*As good as Thierry Henry & Juan Pablo Angel are, and as good an addition as Rafa Marquez was to come in and play defensive midfielder in front of their pretty good defense, New York looks like a team missing 1 piece. Namely, a creative attacking midfielder that can link between Marquez and the best striking tandem on paper in the history of the league, and give great service to the two forwards. With the MLS transfer window (trading deadline) ending tonight at midnight, don't expect this last piece of the puzzle to be put in place this year. As such, I wouldn't go so far as saying that NY are a cinch to win the East and make it to the MLS final and have a great chance to win the title, but I think that if they address this one seemingly missing piece in the offseason, they would be the massive favorites next year. Even without this they still should make a great run and go far, but I'm not sure they can win it all without better linking play in central midfield. That said, adding the best soccer stadium in the United States, Thierry Henry, and Rafa Marquez- that's 3 pretty damn good puzzle pieces this year, and show that current management has the ambition to finally make the NY MLS franchise into the power that it should be.
* In Juninho, La Galaxy have the exact player that I just described as lacking for New York. I'd never seen him before, and when I saw Juninho on the starting lineup my first thought was that LA had signed Mr. 50/50 (comment #6), then I realized it is a new Juninho who is just a young kid. Great vision & passing, and looks to be a player that could really blossom into something special. I've only seen him once but he seems like a bit of a coup for LA to have signed him from Brasil; he seems talented enough that his logical move would have been to Europe. He's definitely one to watch.
* The new Red Bulls stadium is sweet, and the acoustics are very good, which surely was part of the design. From the camera shots it wasn't quite a sellout but a very good crowd, and it was the 1st MLS game I've watched where enough people were singing loudly that you could easily make out the chants and the words to the chants. Made for much better viewing experience that say a San Jose game, which are played in the Santa Clara University stadium and have a very MLS circa 1997 feel. This is also very good for the league and for US Soccer. A proper big league game atmosphere for a league still climbing the long mountain road to big league status.
*One such easily discernible chant in the first half was NY fans mocking LA's goalie to the tune of La Donna E Mobile: "Ricketts likes little boys, Ricketts likes little boys, Ricketts likes little boys, Ricketts likes little boys..." Not to condone this song, because it's as stupid as the Arsene Wenger pedophile song, but it made me realize that New York & Philly soccer fans will obviously be the first US fans to fully realize the potential of en masse juvenile vitriol soccer songs.Here's hoping that cleverness trumps stupidity going forward.
*From here on out MLS executives will surely be rooting for a NY-LA final, as this would be best for the league in terms of visibility, spectacle, television ratings, and advertising revenue. Reminds me of how the NBA & ABC/ESPN executives always root for a Celtics-Lakers final, or how baseball powers always root for a Yankees-Red Sox ALCS.
*I admittedly don't watch alot of MLS week in and week out; I see highlights on Fox Soccer Report and will watch 10-15 minutes of a game here and there if it catches my interest when I am channel surfing. So if you are hardcore US Soccer/MLS person and you read this and look down your nose at me as a surface level simpleton, then I plead guilty as charged.
1. The World Cup Fatigue Factor
Watch for players on teams who played in the World Cup, especially on teams who made a deep run. In most cases these players were given extra time off before reporting to training camp with their clubs, and as such they are both not quite back to being ready for their team and trying to work through and shake off the physical & mental fatigue from the World Cup. For some players, they will not have had more than a month off since June 2009, and it typically manifests itself in two ways: First, such players are brought back into the club fold slowly and/or they start the season slowly. Second, such players often hit a wall towards the end of the season as the long haul fatigue sets in; kind of a long term bonk from playing virtually non-stop over a 22 month span, especially for players who play on teams that make deep runs in multiple competitions (league & cups).
Don't be surprised if, say, Arjen Robben has a less monsterous year than last: playing in and winning both German league and Cup, and losing in Champions League final and World Cup final, he is an example of a player who may yield to fatigue early and/or late in the season.
Two of Arsenal's best players seem to fit in the category, but Arsenal are lucky that upon further review they do and they don't: Robin Van Persie was out injured for several months last year, and Cesc Fabregas was injured for 2 months as well, and on top of that his World Cup playing time was extremely limited. These guys, once they get back into camp and get fully ramped up, should have a better chance of fighting off the long term fatigue than some others.
2. Players Who Missed World Cup And Are Both Fresh And Motivated
The opposite of fatigued, overused players are those who are well rested because they missed the World Cup, and are also pissed that they missed the World Cup and are super motivated and chomping at the bit to get back out on the field and do their thing. Russian captain Andrei Arshavin may be the best player in the world who did not make the World Cup; he is rested, motivated, more than a bit crazy, and definitely a player whose performances vary based on effort & desire- don't be surprised if he has a big season after a quiet one last year.
Hoping for more performances like this from the "little Russian genius" in 2010-11, starting with this Sunday at Anfield
Same thing for the likes of Michael Essien (returning from injury), Michael Ballack (ditto), Samir Nasri (who has been a beast in Arsenal pre-season games), Theo Walcott, Esteban Cambiasso, Alexandre Pato, and Karim Benzema just to name a few.
3. Don't Get Too Excited Early On
The beginning of the season is always stop/start with the interruption of the fall international matches- 3 games then a break, 4 games then a break, etc, etc. Also, many years teams start out the season in unexpected fashion, most often a promoted team or perennial bottom dweller getting off to a hot start and being in the top 5 of the table. But don't get too excited and start talking trash or believing that they can carry their early form through the full 38 game season. The underdog overachievers typically fall back to earth for 2 reasons: lack of squad depth/quality vis a vis the bigger better teams which over the long haul triggers a regression to the mean, and in the case of promoted teams, it taking a while for the other teams to learn their new opponent and then how to beat that opponent (think of a pitcher who gets called up to MLB and does great the first time he faces teams, but then struggles the 2nd, 3rd, 4th time he plays teams as scouting and adjustments kick in). Less frequent but still applicable is the opposite- when a big club struggles and find themselves firmly in the bottom half of the table after a handful of games. In both cases, usually by the second half of the season they have worked their way back to where most expected they would be, with the big boys back at the top and the heart warming minnows fighting to avoid relegation.
A good measure is not to get too excited or make too many conclusions about teams until 10 league games have been played. Then start talking trash or thinking 'uh, oh' this could really be an outlier/anomaly year (Liverpool 2009-2010). Until 10 games have been played don't believe the "What's Wrong With ManU?" or "Blackpool Will Challenge For A Place In Europe!!!" stories in mid-September.
--> Intentional or not, Wenger's reaction to Fabianski's latest schoolboy howler (2nd goal) is pretty hilarious.
--> It'll be fun & new & weird to see headed Arsenal goals this year (Chamakh).
--> Without a quality keeper and another quality centreback, Arsenal will score tons of goals this year, concede tons of goal this year, and finish 3rd or 4th.
--> With a proper keeper and another quality centreback, this team *could* win the league. Not that they will, but they could. Without them, they simply cannot.
--> Either way, they'll be super fun to watch for neutrals.
Of course he was never leaving, as was made abundantly clear back on June 2nd. But that doesn't sell papers, generate web hits, or help you try to win a club presidential election all summer during the offseason now, does it?
I've always liked Barcelona. A lot. I watch most of their games, I've been to Camp Nou to see them play, and it might not be false to say they are my 2nd favorite team. That said, I lost alot of respect for their management and some of their players this spring & summer with their overt tapping up and failure to get through their heads that Arsenal were not selling or negotiating Cesc. They arrogantly thought they could get him without paying anything near market value, when 1) they didn't have the money and 2) he wasn't even for sale. The alleged ivory purity of "Mes que un club" took a bit of a hit, that's for sure.
These teams will play a home & home two-legged playoff, with the winner advancing to the Champions League proper, aka the Group Stage, where 32 teams will be split into 8 groups of 4 and play round robin home & away with the top 2 advancing to the Knockout Stage in the spring, culminating in the final at Wembley in London in May 28, 2011.
Here's the draw:
Salzburg (Austria) v Hapoel Tel Aviv (Israel)
Rosenborg Trondheim (Norway) v FC Copenhagen (Denmark)
Basel (Switzerland) v Sheriff Tiraspol (Moldova)
Sparta Prague (Czech Republic) v Zilina (Slovakia)
Partizan Belgrade (Serbia) v Anderlecht (Belgium)
Young Boys (Switzerland) v Tottenham Hotspur (England)*
Braga (Portugal) v Sevilla (Spain)
Werder Bremen (Germany) v Sampdoria (Italy)
Zenit St Petersburg (Russia) v Auxerre (France)
Dynamo Kiev (Ukraine) v Ajax Amsterdam (Netherlands)
Matches will be played August 17/18 and August 24/25, and the Champions League Group Stage draw will be made on Friday, August 26.
*Too many jokes about Spurs and Young Boys. Too easy. Refraining. Insert your own as needed.
His legacy and tenure will be debated for years to come, but for me his legacy will be that at age 49 he still seemed like one of the first people in the world to learn how to bend the infamous Jabulani ball, and perhaps even gave the cheat code to the players at the World Cup who were clearly baffled by it in the first week of the competition.
49 year old shows the young bucks how Jabulani is tamed
One thing is for sure: the international soccer scene just got a hell of a lot less interesting and fun. Long live El Diego the insane genius manager.
So the New York Red Bulls did sign Thierry Henry after all, as I reported here three weeks ago, back when it was the worst kept secret in soccer. Tonight he makes his MLS debut in an exhibition match against a little outfit called Tottenham Hotspur (5pm PST, Fox Soccer Channel). You think TH14 will be up for it?
Henry scored 226 goals for Arsenal, but always lists this one as his favorite.
"I won't even mention the name of the team that we are going to play on the 22nd. That's how big a rivalry is it for me."
This is a treat for US viewers, because the opponent pretty much guarantees that we'll see all out effort from TH14 rather than the usual exhibition match going through the motions routine. After all, we are talking about a man who has this picture on his wall at home...
"Whenever I look at the picture I always see new faces." -TH14
He may be 32 and a bit over the hill for a full season in the EPL or La Liga at the top, top level, but make no mistake- Thierry Henry will do very well in MLS and score lots & lots of goals; as it is he is probably the best player in the league right now. And he will play tonight like it is a cup final; this is a mercurial, Gallic player who is heavily influenced by emotions and mood- he can range from giving 100% for 90 minutes to sulking his way right out of a game if things are not to his liking. So don't be surprised if he scores a goal or two against Spurs tonight (which would suit me just fine).
Unless this is your first time to this site, then you already know what the key to this game is. Like any game involving this Spain team, the key to the game is which team scores first. Given their superior possession game, if Spain score first I don't think they will lose to Netherlands or Brasil or anyone else. On the other hand, if Holland score first, then Spain will be in significant trouble. Remember that their only 2 losses in the last 3 years were to USA and Switzerland, and in both matches the opponent scores first and went on to win. Given that Holland are significantly more dangerous and talented than Switzerland or the USA, if they score first they have an excellent chance to lift the World Cup. If Spain score first, I think they will win the World Cup.
We've also been over this many times, but given that I picked Spain to win World Cup 2006, picked Spain to win Euro 2008, and picked Spain to win this World Cup, I was on the bandwagon before it was built. In fact, much like Mike Mulligan & His Steam Shovel, the bandwagon was built around me like the new town hall was built around them. As such, there is no backing down now, and the pick is Spain.
I ran the numbers on the world cup pool I'm currently leading- if Spain win I net $465, while if Holland win I'm guaranteed 2nd place which will net me $93. Pretty good either way for the $20 buy in, but obviously Spain is also the pick of my wallet.
Enjoy the match, for tomorrow there is no more world class soccer until the Premier League starts up on Saturday August 15 (Liverpool-Arsenal 1st day fixture!).
Friend of the show Carlo returns to preview the World Cup final. Enjoy. -Kanu
As many others have stated, this final features the two nations with the proudest footballing histories to have never won the World Cup. These teams also share the distinction of being arguably the two most dominant teams of the past 18 months, with neither having dropped a single point during World Cup qualifying.
Holland has continued its winning ways in the World Cup and is looking to achieve a perfect record in the tournament. Spain suffered an early setback, losing its first match 1-0 to Switzerland, but has since gone on to win all of its fixtures.
Throughout the tournament, Bert van Marwijk's side has looked to maintain possession while slowly working the ball towards its attacking players. In this match, the Dutch will likely find themselves in the strange position of not having the lion's share of possession. If the Spanish begin to dominate possession, as they have against every team they have played for the past couple years, van Marwijk will be faced with an interesting tactical dilemma. With the exception of Chile, every team the Spanish have faced has elected to put 8,9, or 10 men behind the ball and defend deeply, while hoping to strike on the counter. While this strategy worked for Switzerland, it has failed for the rest of Spain's opponents, with all three of its knockout round foes failing to score a single goal. If Spain dominates possession, will van Marwijk instruct his players to sit back and defend and play on the counter, or will he have them defend higher up the field in an effort to gain control of the midfield? The Dutch haven't shown themselves to be a counter-attacking side thus far, but if they lose the central midfield battle, they may feel as though there only option is to play in this manner.
With question marks still surrounding the Dutch central defense, the pressure will be on defensive midfielders Mark van Bommel and Nigel de Jong to provide as much cover as possible for the Dutch defense. In addition, at least two of HOlland's four attack-minded players will be asked to do a lot of defending, with the tournament's co-leading scorer Wesley Sneijder dropping deeper to help van Bommel and de Jong in midfield, and winger Dirk Kuyt tracking Sergio Ramos whenever he makes forward runs from his right back position.
When the Dutch do have the ball, expect them to look to find Arjen Robben. His matchup against Spanish left back Joan Capdevila may be the only area where Holland has a distinct advantage. Capdevila doesn't have the pace to keep up with Robben, so Spain may have one of its midfielders double team Robben whenever he is in possession.
Overall, it's hard to see Spain losing this match. Although the Dutch attacking players have the quality to trouble the Spanish defense, because of Spain's ability to control the game with their passing and movement, opportunities to get at Spain's defense may be few and far between. While Holland's defense has performed much better than expected, it may be asking too much to expect them to keep Spain at bay for the entire match.
The key to this game, like most 3rd place games, is motivation, as by nature the consolation game is anticlimactic for any team that just a few days ago knew that they were 90 minutes from the final and 180 minutes from being world champions. Germany have been to the semifinals 12 times in the last 15 world cups, so this may be a bit of old hat for them and I'm not sure how much they will be up for it. Uruguay on the other hand seem to be really motivated to finish 3rd. After the loss to Netherlands, when asked whether this World Cup has been a success for Uruguay, their coach said something to the effect of* "it depends on the 3rd place game. For us, there is a big difference between 3rd or 4th." As such, don't be surprised if Uruguay seem to want it a little more and play with a bith more intensity, while perhaps Germany will struggle a bit to mentally get themselves out of going through the motions to playing with pride and intensity. After all, 3rd place in the World Cup for Germany, 3 time winners, 4 times runners-up, and 12 time semifinalists, isn't as big a deal to them as it would be for Uruguay (winners in 1930 and 1950, and semifinalists in 1970, but since then they have not done much of anything).
Motivation aside, this is a great match to watch, as each team returns to full strength after really struggling with the absence of a key offensive weapon in their respective semifinal losses. Luis Suarez returns for Uruguay, which fully restores them to a two-headed monster up front, while Thomas Muller returns for Germany. While not as noticed as Suarez for his importance to the team, Muller had a hand in more than half of Germany's record high goals in this World Cup, scoring or assisting on 7 of their 13 goals.
Tactically this is also a great matchup, as Uruguay are a solid defensive team who are well organized and difficult to break down, and their primary objective is to keep a clean sheet by using their defense & midfield to stifle their opponents, then relying on superscorers Forlan & Suarez to get them goals- these two have scored all but two of Uruguay's goals at this World Cup. Germany on the other hand like to play offensive attacking soccer, either outright or on the counterattack, so this has the potential to be a wonderful spectacle for the neutrals, especially if an early goal or two opens up the game.
On paper, I think Germany's offense with Muller back would be too much for even Uruguay's defense, and they would be the pick to win. If you're more into intangibles, I think this game means much more to Uruguay and they will play with more intensity than Germany, who may have a hard time getting out of going through the motions mode.
For that reason, there is no pick, as it is too close to call. Rather, I'll just try to enjoy what could be a great game to watch**.
*as I am off the grid and don't have the ability to google the quote I saw last week an get it exact, I am paraphrasing here.
**I will be enjoying this match in a week when I return home and catch a replay, so there will not be any instant analysis match report today.
So *if* Spain win Sunday, they would be reigning European & World Champions, and would have only lost 2 of their last 60 or so competitive matches, while becoming the first team ever to lose their opening World Cup match and go on to win the tournament. Where would you put them among the all time great teams?
Off the top of my head, the all time great teams include(not necessarily in order but as a group):
Hungary 1950-1954 (sorry Netherlands, this is the best team to never win World Cup) Uruguay 1924-1930 Brasil 1958-1962 West Germany 1972-1974 Brasil 1970 Netherlands 1970-1978 France 1998-2001
Brasil 70 has taken on a life force of it's own with regard to best team ever discussions, but these other teams all had sustained success over multiple tournaments/extended time periods, not just one (of course Brasil 70 can be viewed as the culmination of Brasil 1958-70, so no problem there). I am probably forgetting a couple, as I'm sitting in Cleveland airport at 7am after a no sleep redeye, but these are the main ones that come to mind.
Where would you put Spain? In this group? For me they would join this group. Beyond that, how would you rank these teams, or how would you group them into different echelons?
For me this was the World Cup final. What I mean by that is that as the match started, I thought that Germany and Spain were the two best teams of the three still alive in the tournament, and that whoever won this match would go on to defeat Netherlands in the final.
Spain played their best match of the tournament thusfar and dominated from the beginning, always seeming to be in control and more likely to score. They played solid defense and after 70 minutes their control, calm, possession, and patience were rewarded when Puyol headed in a great cross from the left to make it 1-0 to Spain. And once Spain were up 1-0, you knew that they were in the catbird seat and would most likely win. Which they did.
The key once again was Saint Iker, whose 2 outstanding saves kept the match 0-0. With all the attention being paid to the amazing talent in the outfield, Iker Casillas has quietly been this team's most valuable player by far, and without the best goalkeeper in the world they may very well not have escaped the first round, let alone marched all the way to the final. Here's hoping he gets more credit than the world media has given him thusfar, for he is the #1 reason that Spain will be playing for the championship of the world on Sunday.
For Germany, there is no shame in losing to Spain again, as they did in the Euro 2008 final. In both instances they lost by 1 goal to the best team on the planet, and if Spain go on to win the World Cup on Sunday, to one of the top teams ever(more on where Spain would rank if they do win this world cup either tomorrow or Friday, so save your comments on that for later). Germany are very young, insanely talented, and suddenly play swashbuckling beautiful attacking soccer- their future is very bright and any smart football punter would get down to the betting shop in the next week or month and put a fiver or a hundy on them to win Euro 2012(of course they may likely have to unseat Spain to do so, but those two will most likely be the favorites, while Germany will offer a better value, especially right now). Also, don't forget that they made this great run without their veteran captain Michael Ballack, who I suspect has no intention of quitting international soccer anytime soon. Germany are on the rise.
So Spain v Holland on Sunday at 11.30am PST on ABC*. We are now guaranteed to have a new World Cup champion, as well as the first European team to win the World Cup on foreign soil. After a dreadful first round of group stage matches, it has been a wonderful tournament full of drama, excitement, great soccer, and manymany firsts.
As happy as I am that I predicted the final, and that I stand to win over $500 if Spain win on Sunday, make no mistake- the best part is that my wife is happy :)
Ahora, mi bonita es muy feliz.
*3rd place game will be Uruguay v Germany on Saturday at 11.30am PST on ESPN.
Muller is suspended, Cesc picked up an injury and may not be able to play, but for me this match all comes down to one thing: The team that scores first will win. As I explained in great detail before the quarterfinals, Spain are the hardest team in the world to come from behind against, and if they score first I think they win. On the other hand, if they concede then they are in big trouble, and the odds of them conceding first against Germany are higher than anyone else in the tournament, including Holland. Germany are the tournament highest scoring team with 13 goals, and they have beaten Australia 4-0, England 4-1, and Argentina 4-0, becoming the 1st team ever to score 4 goals in both the round of 16 and the quarterfinals as well as the first team to win both round of 16 and quarterfinal by at least 3 goals.
So I can't pick against them now, as 1) I was on the bandwagon before the bandwagon had wheels and 2) I stand to profit handsomely if they go on to win.
However, if all of the above were not true and I was handicapping this match in a vacuum, I would pick Germany for their performances to date and the fact that they have as good a chance as anyone ever will to score 1st against Spain and take away their greatest strength.
So I'll middle it and simply say: If Spain score first, they will win. If Germany score first, they will win.
Oh, and if it goes to penalties, of course Germany will win.
His only "loss"? He predicted Germany to beat Spain in the final of Euro 2008, which as we all know Spain won.
In the last 24 hours the world has noticed that Germany is buzzing with word that Paul has picked Spain to beat Germany today, and due to his track record some are despondent.
However, those rooting for Germany should not despair- Paul could simply be employing what my friend Drew calls the "reverse jinx", and maybe his pick against Germany is strategic considering his only "loss" involved the Euro 2008 final between these two teams, and means that there is some voodoo going on which we cannot understand which in the end will see Germany through to the final.
For the first 70 minutes the game was the tight, cagey affair that many expected, myself included. To that point it was essentially a 0-0 draw with 2 outlier thunderbolt goals from distance, one each from respective team captains Giovanni Van Bronkhorst (18th min) and Diego Forlan (41st min).
Most of the world media right now are talking about the 2nd Dutch goal where Robin Van Persie appeared to be slightly offsides and was involved in the goal as he swiped at it and tried to redirect it in. I haven't seen enough replays to convince me that he wasn't even with the defender and therefore onside, and I also think he got the slightest of touches and should be credited with the goal. Van Persie was even, not clearly offside, and the goal was lucky(deflection) but legitimate, and no it looks like RVP did not get a touch on it. Either way the goal stood, and a few minutes later Arjen Robben headed in a 3rd to apparently seal the game at 3-1, although that notion was dismissed when Uruguay scored a sweet curling goal in the 92nd minute to make it 3-2 and then had a furious onslaught in the final 100 seconds to try to force extra time, but in the end time ran out on their fairy tale run and Netherlands march on to the final.
But what most of the world missed, including the referee and his linesman, was the actual key to the game that should be controversial talking point #1, for it proved much larger than the non-offsides call on the 2nd Dutch goal. In the buildup to the opening goal by GVB, Mark Van Bommel, as he is wont to do, slyly got away with an incredibly dangerous and dirty 'tackle' that went unnoticed- he raked his cleats over a Uruguay player's knee, studs up, after the ball was long gone.
At an absolute bare minimum this should have been a yellow card, which would have negated the goal and left the game a cagey 0-0 affair. But if noticed, I'd say 6 of 10 referees in the world, including Graham Poll, would have given Van Bommel a straight red card, which would have turned the entire game in a major, major way, as:
1. GVB's wondergoal would never have happened, and it would still be 0-0. 2. Van Bommel would have been sent off, Holland reduced to 10 men for remaining 72 minutes 3. Holland would have prob had to tactically sub to replace their defensive midfielder, likely removing one of their 4 attacking players in the process, further reducing their chances and taking away 1 of 3 subs for 2nd half 4. Even if Holland went on to win, their key defensive midfielder and shield for their Achilles heel defense Van Bommel would have been suspended for the final.
Instead of that, it was 1-0 to Netherlands in the 18th minute and 11v11, and MVB went completely unpunished. The game then played out as it did and Holland went on to win.
You cannot say on the balance of play that they did not deserve to win. And their precision in all 3 goals was remarkable- all three went in off the post. However, that said, luck must also be acknowledged for the significant part it played for them today- the Van Bommel knee raking going unnoticed, the no call on the crucial 2nd goal, as well as the 2nd goal being a double (Sneijder's shot hit not 1 but 2 Uruguay defenders) and possibly even triple deflection (I think RVP also got the slightest of touches on it too) deflection off the defender that went in off the post. So for me equal parts precision and luck have vaulted Holland to the final. I'm not saying they shouldn't have won, and I'm not hating on them- hell they're making me look smarter than I am. I'm just being real, and also pointing out that perhaps the most significant moment of the match went unnoticed by the referee and his crew, and is now going largely unnoticed by the world media.
Other random thoughts:
1. GVB's opening thunderbolt goal from 35 yards out is the goal that Adidas executives were all fantasizing about when they gave birth to this franken-ball. Unfortunately for them it has turned out that 90% of strikes from distance, if not more, have been wildly off target and only a rare few knuckle in the right way to produce jaw-dropping goals.
2. Caceres' goal-saving tackle in the 31st minute in his own box to take an easy goal away from Arjen Robben, 2 minutes after he was given a yellow card for kicking De Zeeuw in the face, was ballsy, perfect, and amazing given the circumstances.
3. Diego Forlan is The Jabulani Tamer. He was the first one to noticeably figure it out, and even though today's dipping power shot from distance looks like it got the slightest of touches from the Dutch defender's head (see replay of goal from angle behind goalkeeper) and the free kick against Ghana was intended to bend into the upper left corner and then instead changed direction and bent the other way into the top right, he is still, given all other evidence from this collection of most talented footballers on the planet, THE JABULANI TAMER.
4. RVP does not lack for confidence, and that 2nd goal today was the least celebrated of his entire career- this can only be because he himself thought that he may very well have been offsides. It was just funny to see him so muted, usually he is jubilant and even boastful after his goals. Of course, maybe he knows he swung & missed, and was trying to convince the referee that he was not "actively involved" in the goal, but I think he may have gotten a tiny little touch that redirected it in off the post. Either way, he has never before and never again will celebrate a goal in such a muted way.
5. Arjen Robben must be given credit for dialing down the playacting, diving, simulation antics that were so over the top against Brasil. Yes he had a few, but I got the feeling that even he must have been embarrassed of his antics when he went back and watched video of the win over Brasil. Whatever the reason, credit to him for dialing it down by about 80%; we can only hope this continues in the final.
6. Europe is now guaranteed to win their 1st ever World Cup on foreign soil. Going into this 2010 World Cup, they were famously 9 for 10 in World Cups held on home soil (with Sweden as runners up to Brasil in 1958), while also going 0 for 8 in World Cups held outside of Europe. No matter what happens from here on out, Europe is now 1 for 9 away from home. And any and all talk as recently as a week & a half ago about how poorly Europe were doing is now laughable. Additionally, for the first time a team from the northern hemisphere will win a world cup held in the southern hemisphere; previously they had been 0 for 4, 0 for 6 if you include the two world cups held in Mexico.
7. At halftime ESPN had sweet crowd reaction shots to the goals from Amsterdam & Montevideo. It would have been even better if they could have shown similar reaction shots in the 2nd half. The reason they didn't is because like every other broadcaster on earth, they are paying for & getting the FIFA feed. They don't control the official game feed, so they couldn't just have their production team in the truck cut to those videos as desired. The only way you'll see such shots tomorrow or in the final is if the official feed sent out to the world by FIFA incorporate it themselves. Not likely.
No matter who wins it will be a good story: Holland getting back to a final, where they were the darlings of both tournaments but in the end lost to the hosts in both 1974(West Germany) & 1978(Argentina), or Uruguay raising the Ghosts of Futbol Past in a return to glory not seen in 60 years (won 1924, 1928 Olympic Gold Medals, won 1930, 1950 World Cups).
First things first, expect a tight game rather than a open, high scoring affair. Uruguay's strength is its collective defending, while Holland's team is really two teams in one: the "back 7"'s main job is to defend, nullify the opponent, and try to keep a clean sheet, while the "front 4" of Van Persie, Robben, Sniejder, and Kuyt constitute the attacking threat and are relied upon to break down the defense with their immense skill. The result should be a tight game where each team creates a handful of chances, and the winner will be determined by who takes their chances better. Don't expect to see a wide open back and forth with overlapping fullbacks bombing up and down the flanks.
If Suarez was available, I would think that the two headed monster of Forlan & Suarez would have a great shot to defeat Holland. With Suarez suspended for the red card given for the 2nd most famous handball of all time (1. Maradona 1986, 3. Henry 2010), the first reaction is that Forlan alone up top, or with an inferior strike partner, means Uruguay are up against it.
On the other hand, Holland's big weakness is their defense, and now they will be without 2 first choice defenders. This instantly gives Uruguay back the chance that Suarez's absence took away. I mean after all, with their first choice defense they conceded this goal to Robinho, which was such poor defending that it resembled something from my Monday night co-ed recreational 8v8 league than the greatest stage in professional soccer.
So if we call these two suspension losses even, then for me the game still tilts in favor of Holland. Why? Three reasons. First, because in Robben, Van Persie, and Sneijder, they have 3 players who can create a goal out of nothing on their own, and who are even more dangerous when they choose to link up and work together (which sometimes they do and sometimes they don't, preferring the stubborn hard-headed Dutch way or trying to do it all themselves).
Second, because while Suarez is getting all the attention, starting left back Fucile is also suspended for Uruguay for yellow card accumulation. He would have been their best chance for trying to stop Robben from terrorizing Uruguay's left flank. Now that responsibility will fall to a bench player. Whether or not he can stop Robben is not certain; what is certain is that there is no way he will be able to stop Robben pathetic antics, acting, and exaggeration, which against Brasil was every bit as bad as a Cristiano Ronaldo greatest hits album.
Third, Holland have a greater ability to bring players off the bench in the last 20 minutes to change the game and make a difference as the starters tire. Primary among among them are talented young winger Elia whose pace on the wing could be crucial in the late stages, as well as Affelay, another young talent who could come on late and provide additional creative passing options from midfield.
Having said that, Uruguay's defense if stout, well-organized, and very difficult to break down. The key will be trying to contain Robben on one wing, while having to deal with Kuyt on the other wing, whose relentless hustle, effort and work rate both creates difficulty for the defense whether Holland or Uruguay are in possession and also helps negate any right fullback getting forward to help out in attack. And even if they shut down the wings, then there is Sniejder & Van Persie to deal with. For me the Dutch should win because of their 3 game-breakers, whereas with Suarez suspended Uruguay only have 1.
Of course, anything can happen, as we have seen throughout the tournament and especially the round of 16.
The pick: Netherlands, although not as confident or certain of the pick as say USA over Algeria, France to lose their last game, Spain against Chile, Portugal, and Paraguay, or even Holland over Brasil. Meaning that if Uruguay scores first and goes on to win, I wouldn't be all that surprised.
SEMIFINALS Tuesday July 6
11.30am Netherlands v Uruguay. ESPN, Univision.
Wednesday July 7
11.30am Germany v Spain. ESPN, Univision.
2010 WORLD CUP FINAL Sunday July 11
11.30am
ABC, Univision.
I'm off- Bonita & I are going down to camp near Pinnacles National Monument with family this weekend. As such, I will be off the grid until Monday night. I wish you all a happy and safe holiday weekend.
Enjoying the World Cup but wish you could be there to experience it firsthand? Well I am pleased to present a first hand account of friend of the show Chilltown who just returned from South Africa, lived the dream, and was kind enough to type up some thoughts for us envious soccer fans. Enjoy, and follow Chilltown on twitter @chilltown1491 -Kanu
World Cup 2010: Feel it, It is Here
By Chilltown
The first sights I saw as I descended into Johannesburg are the slag hills. The massive monuments to a not too distant time when this city found its reason for existence in the rich seams beneath its surface. This fitting introduction represents the first act of South Africa, the resources that were its blessing and its curse. But my trip here is evidence that the curtain has fallen on that act: despite unbelievable setbacks, the country is well into its second act on the world stage. The World Cup is both a graduation present and a final exam for the standard-bearer of a continent. How would the country fare?
The first sight I saw as I walked bleary-eyed through passport control in the Johannesburg airport is a massive soccer ball, suspended from the ceiling of the terminal. It was my first hint that the country has caught World Cup fever. The enthusiasm is palpable, from the airport staff wearing Bafana Bafana jerseys to the murals painted on every wall. This theme repeateditself throughout my trip from Johannesburg to Durban to Cape Town: country flags on cars and trees and lampposts, flight attendants with World Cup pins, talk of soccer on everyone’s lips.The single-minded focus of the country was inspiring and reassuring. No one understands the importance of a successful World Cup more than South Africans.
*****
The World Cup experience is not simply formed by 22 players on a field. What we see, hear, and feel around sporting events is often just as important as the game itself in shaping how we think of the game. The best example of this principle in action at World Cup 2010 was, of course, the vuvuzela. The vuvuzela, that much-maligned plastic representation of capitalism at work, may become the lasting symbol of the 2010 World Cup. Those horns acted as an emotional amplifier, whether blown in anticipation of the match, hooted in anger at a bad decision, or joyously sounded after a goal.Those subtleties are lost on television, where viewers simply hear a background buzzing, annoying as it is constant. But in person, the vuvuzela, whatever its origins, is the stamp of South African feeling upon the world game of soccer.
The atmosphere around the games was unlike anything I had ever seen. In Durban, we ate lunch on a terrace overlooking a boardwalk next to the Indian Ocean as all around us, Brazilian and Portuguese fans caroused and sang and blew their vuvuzelas. A group of Zulu drummers appeared and were quickly joined by joyous Brazilians, improvising on their vuvuzelas. The whole scene was infused with an indescribable air of feeling, somehow different from the anticipation before a playoff game or even the rowdiness of a college football tailgate.
The stadiums, too, were modern and fantastic. The one in Durban could stand up to any in the United States. Transportation was efficient and the aspect of everyone involved in the games was cheerful and helpful. The matches themselves were a smashing success for South Africa, well-run and suffused with joy.
That is not to say that the country is without its serious problems. As we drove back from the USA-Algeria game through the Mid Rand between Pretoria and Johannesburg, we could not help but see the masses of men wandering the roads in the cold dark. We saw them huddled around their trashcan-fires for warmth; the joy of the stadium seemed a lifetime away. As our car sped along the upraised motorway, I looked out and saw across the plain hundreds of these fires, the watchfires of some destitute army owed decades of back pay, the losers of a battle they never fought, let alone had a chance to win.The problems of crushing unemployment and poverty and lack of opportunities for so many of its citizens can never be touched by a month-long sporting event, no matter how grand and global.
Despite these problems, everyone I spoke to in South Africa had an amazingly positive outlook. They spoke of how the tournament had united the country in ways previously deemed impossible. Of course, they wondered how long this harmony would last after July 11th, but that question looks much more promising than it did even five years ago.
*****
SABC, the national broadcaster of South Africa, punctuated their coverage of the 2010 World Cup with the slogan “feel it. It is here.” For most of the trip, I puzzled over this choice. Feel it? How could you not? It is here? Of course it is!
By the end, however, I had come to realize that these five words, as well as five words possibly can, encapsulated South Africa’s World Cup. The amazing emotion, the feeling injected into this World Cup by the people of South Africa defined the experience and helped to make it unforgettable. For a country only a generation removed from the horrors of apartheid, the 2010 World Cup finally coming off is an incredible achievement.
Feel it. It is here.
Against all odds, with the eyes of the world and the hopes of a continent upon it, South Africa has in almost all respects been an incredible host. The deeper problems that must be tackled in the longer term still persist, but right now the future of South Africa looks as bright as the gold and stones that first brought the country onto the world stage.
