Sunday, April 13, 2008

Don't Expect The TW Miracle

Immelman -11
Snedeker -9
Flesch -8
Casey -7
Woods -5

Everyone is looking for a TW miracle win today, but I just can't see it happening.

- 16 of the last 17 years, the winner has come from the final group, Zach Johnson last year being the exception, and he started the final round only 2 shots behind

- Tiger has NEVER won a major coming from behind on the final day

- Tiger's biggest final round deficit overcome was 5, a few years back at Pebble Beach and included a hole out from the fairway and youngster Matt Gogel shitting the bed. Tiger may hole out today, but it is highly unlikely that all 4 dudes in front of him will shit the bed.

But the biggest reason is the weather, specifically the wind. It is swirling and gusting to 20-25 mph today, meaning the course will play so tough that it will look more like a US Open, with par being a good score and birdies scarce, and you will see more guys back up today than go forward. Shooting a low score today will be damn near impossible.

The only way Tiger can win is if everyone in front of him backs up due to the conditions and he miraculously shoots a 67 or 68 while the others shoot over par. Possible, but unlikely.

Basically, if Immelman and/or Snedeker shoot a decent round today and don't implode, one of them will be your winner. The course setup these days excludes fireworks and really low numbers- add in the swirling winds and a low number today is damn near impossible. Flesch and Casey have a chance, but realistically Tiger is too far back.

That being said, 12 years ago on Sunday I would have bet you my house, car, and every cent I owned that Greg Norman would not blow his 6 shot lead, so I suppose anything is possible. My point is simply that it is highly, highly unlikely.


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