Muller is suspended, Cesc picked up an injury and may not be able to play, but for me this match all comes down to one thing: The team that scores first will win. As I explained in great detail before the quarterfinals, Spain are the hardest team in the world to come from behind against, and if they score first I think they win. On the other hand, if they concede then they are in big trouble, and the odds of them conceding first against Germany are higher than anyone else in the tournament, including Holland. Germany are the tournament highest scoring team with 13 goals, and they have beaten Australia 4-0, England 4-1, and Argentina 4-0, becoming the 1st team ever to score 4 goals in both the round of 16 and the quarterfinals as well as the first team to win both round of 16 and quarterfinal by at least 3 goals.
I can't pick against Spain now. After all:
I picked them to win World Cup 2006
I picked them to win Euro 2008 and beat Germany in the final
I picked them to win this World Cup over Netherlands in the final
I am in 1st place in my World Cup pool and stand to win over $500 if the win the tournament
So I can't pick against them now, as 1) I was on the bandwagon before the bandwagon had wheels and 2) I stand to profit handsomely if they go on to win.
However, if all of the above were not true and I was handicapping this match in a vacuum, I would pick Germany for their performances to date and the fact that they have as good a chance as anyone ever will to score 1st against Spain and take away their greatest strength.
So I'll middle it and simply say: If Spain score first, they will win. If Germany score first, they will win.
Oh, and if it goes to penalties, of course Germany will win.