Team USA: The Math + The Path To The Knockout Stage*

***Update 2.15pm PST***

GROUP C
Slovenia 4 points
3 goals scored
2 goals against
+1 goal differential

United States 2 points
3 goals scored
3 goals against
0 goal differential

England 2 points
1 goal scored
1 goal against
0 goal differential

Algeria 1 point
0 goals scored
1 goals against
-1 goal differential

Wednesday June 23
USA v Algeria ESPN 7am PST
Slovenia v England ESPN2 7am PST

SCENARIOS

1. USA win over ALG and they're in no matter what

2. USA draw + they're in if:
a. SLV beat ENG
b. ENG-SLV draw, then it comes down to a big list of tiebreakers** between ENG & USA ending with the "drawing of lots" (coin flip to you & me) where the key will likely be total number of goals scored. The good great news is that we are current ahead of England by 2 goals in this department

3. US draw + ENG win over SLV = we're out

So there it is.

**FIFA World Cup 2010 List of Group Stage Tiebreakers (h/t fredericiana)
1. Goal difference in all group matches
2. Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches
3. Greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned
4. Goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned
5. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned
6. Drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

---------------------------

SLV 4 pts 2 games played
USA 2 pts 2 games played
ENG 1 pt 1 game played
ALG 0 pts 1 game played

If ENG beats ALG then:
1. US win + any result other than a draw in ENG-SLV = we're in
2. US win + ENG-SLV draw = USA, ENG, SLV all on 5 pts, 1st tiebreaker is goal difference, top 2 in GD are in

If ALG gets a draw today v. ENG then:
1. US win and they're in no matter what
2. US draw + they're in if:
a. SLV beat ENG
b. ENG-SLV draw, then it comes down to a big list of tiebreakers between ENG & USA w/ goals scored being the key
3. US draw + ENG win over SLV = we're out

If ALG beats ENG then:
1. US win = we're in no matter what
2. US draw or loss = we're out no matter what

CONCLUSION: the most American thing you can do right now is run out & buy an Algerian flag and root for them to get some sort of a result against the Evil Empire of George III. Bonus irony points if you're a conservative right winger.

*Someone please fact check this, as I'm on about 20 hours sleep the last 5 days.