Before We Go Any Further

Today concluded the 2nd round of group matches. Tomorrow starts the third and final round, and a few things are worth mentioning before we move on.

Format
Rather than 3 matches at 6, 9, and noon PST, in the last round there will be four matches per day: 2 at 7 a.m. and 2 at noon. The reason for this is that the final set of matches in each group must be played concurrently to prevent manipulation of the outcomes by any team. Because all of the permutations and possibilities are known as this point as far as what two teams go through (and in what spots), the matches must be played at the same time to prevent a team purposely drawing or losing to achieve a desired result. Years ago this was not the case - the games were played one after the other, and there were some high profile cases where either 1) a team in the late match manipulated their match to screw another country: perhaps intentionally drawing or even losing to screw a rival, hated neighbor, or political adversary, or 2) the two teams playing the later match realizing that if they drew then they would both go through and one of the teams from the prior match would get screwed, so they agreed to a tie.

To prevent this, the final group stage matches in major competitions are played concurrently. This can make things very exciting in a group where everything is still up for grabs. A great example this week is group E, where depending on what happens in the US-Ghana and Italy-Czech matches, any 2 of the 4 teams could advance and any 2 of the 4 teams could be knocked out. Any goal in either game can completely change which two teams advance, and this will change several times from moment to moment throughout the 90 minutes, which will make for some very compelling viewing. Furthermore, each team bench and fans will have radios/text messages for instant updates of what is going on in the other match, so look for the fans in the stadium of one match to suddenly cheer like crazy even though nothing has happened in that match - they are cheering what has occurred in the other match. Thursday at 7 a.m. PST you should really try to get to an establishment that will be showing both matches at the same time. In other groups the 2 teams going through have already been decided, so you will have one match where they are simply playing for seeding and another where they are simply playing for pride.

Tiebreakers
Personally the most frustrating thing for me about the World Cup is the tiebreaker system. If two teams finish level on points, the first tiebreaker is NOT head to head results but rather goal difference (goals scored minus goals conceded). I have a huge problem with this and think that it is total rubbish. For example, in group E: If Ghana and the Czech Republic end up level on points, then there is no doubt that Ghana should advance because the two teams played each other and Ghana beat the dogshit out of them. Same thing if the Czechs and the US finish level on points. It seems unfair to me that anything other than the Czechs advancing instead of the US could happen; after all, the two teams played each other and there was little doubt as to which one was better. Yet another example was group H - before Spain sorted tehmselves out today, I was thinking how unfair it would be if Spain and Ukraine ended up level on points and there was any possibility of Ukraine beating out Spain after Spain absolutely spanked them 4-0 (by winning 4-0 themselves today, they have erased their -4 goal differential). You may argue that the goal differential idea has merit, and in theory I can see this. But in reality I think it sucks because oftentimes in the 3rd match teams do not try their best because 1) they are already eliminated and have nothing to play for or 2) they are already through so they rest key players and view it more as a training session, so the goal differential gained against the shit team in the group can be massive.

As a throretical, take Paraguay - they have battled in their first two matches, losing both 0-1, and now have nothing to play for. What if they said "fuck it" at some point in their 3rd match and rolled over and gave up 6 goals, whereas in their first two matches they were not so generous to their opponents when it comes to goal differential? Yes, I know it is not the best example because if T&T finish level with Sweden then those two drew, but imagine if Sweden had beaten T&T and then they somehow ended up tied: T&T would then go through over a Sweden team that had beaten them, all because they romped, say 5-1, over an already eliminated Paraguay team that got down 1-0 and simply said "fuck it". Again, not the most fluid example there but I think that you can see my point.

Even more frustrating is that head to head isn't even the 2nd tiebreaker: that prestigous place is reserved for goals scored. Head to head is the 3rd tiebreeaker, followed by the dreaded Friday Night Lights-style coin toss.

My rather strong opinion is that the first tiebreaker should be head to head, and if the two teams in question drew then you decide by goal diffferential. Just my $.02, and I only hope that a team does not advance at the expense of another team who beat their ass head to head, beacuse I think that would be an absolute shame.

*If there is a three way tie, they look at what is called a "mini-group", meaning they only look at the points earned in the games between the three tied teams. Put another way, they throw out all of the results involving the 4th/"other" team, then use the same 4 tiebreakers described above. For example, take group G: if France beat Togo and Switzerland and South Korea draw, then all three teams will have 5 points and Togo will have none. All of the Togo results will be thrown out, and the tiebreaker rules will be applied to the "mini-league" of France, Switzerland, and South Korea.

Depth
Lots of teams will miss the services of lots of players in this third match due to card accumulation. A team that is really competitive but not deep will be stung much harder than a team with lots of depth and talent on the bench, like Argentina, Spain, or Holland. This is important in round three and will become really important as the knockout stages go on. In 2002 Germany lost their best player, Michael Ballack, to a 2nd knockout stage yellow in their semifinal win over South Korea. He missed the final, and they badly missed him, a great example of a good but not deep team being affected. If this year Argentina lose Crespo or Saviola to card accumulation in the knockout stage, then no big deal, as they just bring on Messi or Tevez and don't even skip a beat (hell, arguably they might even be better off). So keep an eye on how card accumulation and squad depth affect the matches in round 3 and again later in the knockout stage (FYI - the card accumulation slate is wiped clean after the group stage and starts all over again in the knockout stage).

Score First
Early on during the Italy-US match, ABC threw up a graphic stating that the team that scores first in this year's World Cup is 27-2-2, so earlier today I did a little math on the matches played Sunday and today and arrived at the first team scoring going 29-3-2 through the first two rounds. The only problem is that there have only been 32 matches thusfar(perhaps it was I who was baked and their stat was 21-2-2?). Yet another demerit for the Disney crew - their stat was off because they threw it up during the 25th match of the tournament (if you are going to cover this thing like baseball then at least fact check the shit you throw up there). I am going to go back myself tonight and see what the real numbers are, but even if it is anywhere near what they stated you can see how important it is to score first.

Four things to pay attention to as we move forward.