The 132nd Belmont Stakes

Haven't had time to properly handicap this thing due to a serious case of World Cup fever, but here's my extremly uninformed analysis anyways.

When Sunriver missed out on the Derby (22nd on the graded stakes earnings list top 20 got in) even though lots of horsemen were saying that he was rapidly improving and could hit the board, I kept my eye on him. I was hoping that he would win or finish 2nd the Peter Pan at Belmont on Preakness Day, and then I would love him under the radar at 10-1 or so in the Belmont. He did his part, winning the Peter Pan over the same Belmont track that today's race is on, but Barbaro broke down, Brother Derek disappointed again and dropped off the scene, and super-impressive Preakness winner Bernardini took a pass to rest up for later in the year. As a result, my wiseguy pick is now 2nd choice at 4-1.

So there's not much value there but I am going to pick him anyways. Pletcher is a great trainer, and he has a win over the track. Bluegrass Cat, another Pletcher horse, comes back after finishing 2nd in the Derby. He was impressive as a 2 year old and then non-impressive this year until the first Saturday in May. No value as the favorite, and the Derby is such an abnormal race (20 horse field, traffic, etc) that I am tempted to be skeptical that Bluegrass Cat will automatically run back to his Derby form.

I also like Steppenwolfer and Jazil, especially Steppenwolfer. The trick is that late running horses ("bombers") rarely win the Belmont. I don't see much more in this race except for Bob and John, whose Derby was probably a bad-trip throwout. Baffert at a price is always a tempting offer, but I have to pass on any horse that the 2 owners decided to name after themselves, just on anti-hubris general principle.

So let's go with Sunriver, with a "saver" win bet on Steppenwolfer.

If I was at the track I would probably bet these two across the board, or just Sunriver across with these two and Jazil in an exacta box.

The go for the glory trifecta partial wheel ticket would be Sunriver and Steppenwolfer on top, Sunriver, Steppenwolfer, Jazil, and Bob and John in the middle, and the everyone in the field but Platimun Couple, Oh So Awesome, Double Galore, and Sacred Light on the bottom.

There you go . Enjoy.

***Update 2.32 p.m. PST***

Jesus, I knew Barbaro would be the lead-in story on ABC's coverage, and rightfully so. But this all-consuming cheese fest is over the top - typical Disney. I mean Jeremy Shaap reporting live from Barbaro's stall wearing full medical scrubs and ER booties over his shoes? Give me a break, Disney, and cover the horse race for me in an intelligent and compelling way, don't give me The Mighty Ducks meets Rudy.

I know there was a race in there(that got delayed due to starting gate accident, scratches, and a re-load), but still: You came on the air at 2 p.m. and didn't say 1 word about The Belmont Stakes, today's raison d'etre, until 2.31 p.m. Came on lads, sort yourself out.

***Update 2.34 p.m PST***
Sunriver is currently 7-1, 5th choice. Love it.

***Update 3.44 p.m. PST***

Jazil wins impressively, with Sunriver 2nd and Bluegrass Cat 3rd.


Winner, winner, chicken dinner

Man, I have never in my life seen a 12 horse field so bunched together so late in a race - it was amazing. All 12 horses were within probably 8 or 9 lengths of the winner most of the way around the far turn.

How did I do would I have done if I had driven out to Golden Gate Fields to wager what I wrote above? Sunriver paid $6.10 to show, so my across the board bet on him basically brakes even: $10 across= $30, but the show ticket cashes for $30.50. My $24 exacta box with Sunriver, Steppenwolfer, and Jazil hits to the tune of $100.50, but I give half of that back with my losing shoot for the starts partial wheel trifecta ticket, which would have cost I think $48. So if my math is right then I netted $29 ($131-$102), but once you factor in the price of gas in the Bay Area($3.35), the 20 mile drive, and the Bay Bridge toll I might have paid for my lunch, or at least a Coke.

Todd Pletcher is now 0 for 21 in Triple Crown races, which must be extra heartbreaking for him since his 2 entries today finished 2nd and 3rd. I am sure he is happy but extremely disappointed all at the same time.

Great race by Jazil and 18 year old Fernando Jara, recovering from losing an iron out of the gate(English: foot slipped out of the stirrip) and making a great move through lots of traffic to go from the back to the front around the sweeping 3rd turn. Sunriver and especially Bluegrass Cat fought valiantly; all three are legitimate horses, and together with impressive Preakness winner Bernardini, the major races this summer and the rest of the year should be very interesting. I just hope that they all make it to the Breeders Cup Classic in October.

Oh, and mixed results for ABC. I had to endure scrubbed out Jeremy Shaap 3 additional times(no stethescope?), and that technical difficulty with their mics was annoying. On the plus side of the ledger, recently retired jockey Jerry Bailey adds great insight (as does Gary Stevens over on ESPN), and the features by Bailey on the starting gate as well as the graphic showing the size of Belmont Park relative to Churchill Downs and Pimlico were both awesome. As were Randy Moss and Kenny Mayne, as always.

Strange to me that ABC didn't bring back "their" race announcer Dave Johnson ("and DOWN the stretch they come!") who called all of ABC's triple crown races until they lost the TV contract to NBC several years ago. ABC kept Tom Durkin, NBC's triple crown race announcer, who must have gotten a huge boner at the top of the stretch when Steppenwolfer got near the front so he could unleash his "and Steppenwolfer gets HIS motor running!" line that he had probably been dying to use since he started prepping for calling the Derby over 5 weeks ago.

Another Triple Crown laid to rest, with 3 different winners, all legitimate and talented. And I'm sure VISA are extremely relieved that there was no Triple Crown winner the first year after they decided to end their 10 year affiliation with the Triple Crown, where they came so close 6 out of 10 years to awarding their $5 million bonus.

47 weeks from today, 20 of the 40,000 foals (0.05%) born two years ago will make it to the starting gate at Churchill Downs, and 1will become the 133rd Kentucky Derby winner.