tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25555967.post114995918806541979..comments2024-02-09T08:07:26.090-08:00Comments on Dodgy At Best: Swindle On Soccer, Vol. 1: Sputtering To LifeKanuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02959256951835399304noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25555967.post-1149984872233370032006-06-10T17:14:00.000-07:002006-06-10T17:14:00.000-07:00BJS-Betting indidual games in soccer is a fool's e...BJS-<BR/><BR/>Betting indidual games in soccer is a fool's errand in my humble opinion, and I gave it up after betting against Greece (and losing my money)over and over and over again at Euro2004. On the other hand, if the US was like England and there was a Ladbrokes on every corner, then I would be giving them my money as well. I also hate putting down a bet, and then being forced to root against a compelling story or underdog becasue of my bet - perfect example would have been Sweden-T&T today. I liked Sweden to win 3-0, and if I had a bet on them to win I would not have been able to root for the cinderella underdog and enjoyed the match for the wonderful display of soccer that it was; rather, I would have spent the entire match stressing and pissed of that Sweden kept managing to miss good chances by the dozens. For this reason I have decided to take a pass this time around and just enjoy the madness of the world cup on it's face value.<BR/><BR/>Myles Palmer, an excellent writer over at Arsenal News Review, often talks about bets that he makes on matches and why, so I can only assume that he will do the same during the world cup. He knows way more about footy than I do, so you might want to slog through his articles looking for nuggets: <BR/><BR/>http://www.arsenalnewsreview.co.uk/<BR/><BR/>There is a great link to the right in the sidebar under PROPER FOOTBALL called WORLD CUP BETTING ODDS, which will take you to a website that shows the odds for like 20 different books so you can shop and compare. It's the coolest sports gambling site I know of.<BR/><BR/>As far as the outright winner of the tournament, if you thnink Brasil might not win, then in my opinion England, Italy, and Germany are all way overbet and offer very little value at their current prices.<BR/><BR/>Argentina offered massive value at 8-1 or 9-1, but have already dropped down to 6-1 based on today's result(if and when they get out of the "group of death", they will drop all the way down to 2nd choice to Brasil. SO if you like them to win the cup, bet them ASAP.<BR/><BR/>I also thnk Spain at 14-1 offer massive value, as do Holland at the same price(same thing with group of death with them - they will start to drop if they win tomorrow and will drop waaaay down if they get out of the group). And France at 12-1 is a good value too. I could see Portugal winning the whole thing if everything goes their way, so at 22-1 they offer a nice price as well.<BR/><BR/>Personally, I think the winner will come from one of the following 5: Spain, Holland, Argentina,France, or even Portugal. This is assuming Brasil fail as no-value 5/2 favorites.<BR/><BR/>The smart thing to do I suppose is to bet Brasil to win the world cup way early, as soon as they offer it and before the qualifying is even done - on that same website during Euro2004, you could have bet Brasil to win World CUp 2006 at 8-1. Being that they have never failed to qualify, and they have been to the last 3 finals, I should have put a hundy on them two years ago at that price. Might be the way to go in 2010.<BR/><BR/>Good luck, whatever you end up playing.Kanuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02959256951835399304noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25555967.post-1149970425254841652006-06-10T13:13:00.000-07:002006-06-10T13:13:00.000-07:00For much of the game, yes England didn't have much...For much of the game, yes England didn't have much of a pulse. I think after Crouch's three goals against Jamaica last week they were emphasizing the high balls to him a bit too much. Owen should still be the main threat, though to be fair Paraguay kept him marked pretty tightly. <BR/><BR/>I blame Sven for the lack of entertainment value, with the substitutions he was clearly playing for the 1-0 result.<BR/><BR/>BTW, If it's not clear by now I'm an England fan. I was born there and only became a fan of the American game when I happened to go to a university that was pretty good at it (USC). <BR/><BR/>Now, it's time to fire up the Tivo and check on the Argy's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25555967.post-1149969455218545562006-06-10T12:57:00.000-07:002006-06-10T12:57:00.000-07:00It was Joe, Phil--good catch. He was the only puls...It was Joe, Phil--good catch. He was the only pulse England had.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25555967.post-1149969119359651432006-06-10T12:51:00.000-07:002006-06-10T12:51:00.000-07:00Well I never would have expected to find good WC a...Well I never would have expected to find good WC analysis and discussion via an SEC centered college football site. A nice surprise.<BR/><BR/>Are you sure you named the right Cole there Orson? I thought Ashley had a down game and he looked the weakest (today) of the England defenders to my eyes. Joe Cole looked like the best player on the field to me today.<BR/><BR/>Beckham and Owen had some nice flashes, mainly very early in the game, but didn't do much overall. Lampard made some nice plays but Gerrard was disappointing (I though HE looked like the best player in the world when I saw this year's FA cup final).<BR/><BR/>England/Paraguay wasn't an exciting game to watch, but Sweden/T&T made up for it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25555967.post-1149961158563981642006-06-10T10:39:00.000-07:002006-06-10T10:39:00.000-07:00Greetings, soccer person. I'm a college football ...Greetings, soccer person. I'm a college football fan (and gambler) ready to whittle my June away watching futbol. <BR/><BR/>You're right about ABC's stinking coverage. I may not know anything about Sweden, Trinidad, or Tobago. But I don't need to be told 20 times that "a win by T-T or even a draw would be a huge upset." Sweden's the favorite. Got it. <BR/><BR/>I'd love it if you'd make some predictions against the betting spread. It would save me a lot of work, and you seem to know more about the sport than the average bettor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com